03/02/2014
"Feasibility of investment": the growth of consumer spending and the return of cement sales to rise and the decline of inflation
Saudi economy indicators continued recovering
Economic report Newly released said that there were signs of continued economic recovery, in the rising indicators, consumer spending and cement sales rise to highest level in six months, accompanied by a jump in bank deposits and the decline of inflation to the lowest level in two years and a half during the month, while non-oil exports bucked the general trend and declined slightly, the report prepared by the Department of Economics and research said at Jadwa investment that the General index of the Saudi stock market keep rising during the January course «January» 2014, Supported by rising stock markets and the strength of local data, noting that despite having lost some momentum at the end of the month due to the impact on emerging economies confidence indicators among investors, it has performed positively, ten of the 15 sectors of the market, and the overall performance was consistent with market expectations for corporate earnings in the fourth quarter, bringing the total net income of 22.7 billion shareholding companies in the last quarter of 2013, leading to higher net profit for the year 2013 As a whole to 101 billion, the highest annual profit ever.
Real economy the latest data report indicate the recoveries of the economy during the month of December, 2013, with major indicators of consumer spending gains are good, both in absolute terms and compared on a monthly basis. As well, the cement sales recorded their highest level in six months, which exceeded the total sales for the year 2013 as sales in 2012 by about 5.5 per cent, but fell by 6.7 per cent, compared with the same month last year. Cash withdrawals from ATMs recovered, registered a growth of 12 per cent on a monthly basis, but compared to previous high levels led to a reduction in annual growth to 1.3 per cent. POS transactions also increased strongly, reaching their highest level since July, the annual growth rate was 13.4 per cent.
Bank deposits have jumped in December «December» 2013 in line with the usual pattern of the month of the year, with deposits of commercial banks jumped by 2.7 percent on a monthly basis in December, in line with the usual seasonal pattern. Slowed growth on an annual basis, compared with the previous two years, but remained above 10 percent for the third consecutive year. Increase in demand deposits in (December) settle outstanding liabilities at the end of the year in the private sector and formed deposits of the private sector (companies and individuals) most of that increase. Slowed growth in demand deposits to 13.7 percent on a comparative basis in 2013, down from 17.6 percent in 2012. Time and savings deposits, grew by 6 percent last year, the same growth rate for the year 2012.
Bank loans, said the report data that bank lending to the private sector fell slightly in December, noting that these loans also fell four times during the months of December five, indicating that this downturn is a habitual pattern of seasonal and expect to resume lending growth in January, the year 2013 it has slowed down the private sector bank liabilities to 12.5 per cent falling from 16.4 per cent the previous year. The share continued its long-term loans of the total loan growth, while short-term loans ratio stood at 53 per cent, The Commerce sector received the largest share of new lending for the second consecutive year in 2013 as a result of the growth of lending to the public and private sectors less growth of deposits, bank deposits surplus rose the ' SAMA ' to its highest level for 11 months in December. As a result, banks now have considerable potential to increase lending to support growth in the private sector by 2014 and recorded liabilities of the public sector banks further rise through increased government versions of the Treasury, to contain any inflationary pressures caused by excess liquidity in the banking sector. And loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 79 per cent in December, 2013, due to growth in deposits at a faster pace than the growth of loans by 2013. Bank deposits surplus jumped to the ' SAMA ' to highest level in 11 months, amounting to 95.9 billion riyals.
The index inflation for core inflation, which excludes inflation in food and rent, to the lowest level in two and a half years, as a result of the shrinking influence of local sources of inflation in December. There has been almost no change on food inflation, while record inflation of rents rose slightly. The report shows that there is little change in annual inflation in Saudi Arabia in December, 2013, where inflation fell to 3 percent in December, marking a slight decrease compared with its level in November, which was 3.1 per cent, the path continues for the third consecutive month, as a result of a decline in core inflation to 1.5 percent on an annual basis, the lowest level in over two years and a half. Food inflation remained unchanged at about 5.3 percent on a comparative basis, while the annual inflation raised slightly to 3.9 leases per cent.
Foreign trade, the report said non-oil exports slipped slightly in November compared with the level in October, while imports rose slightly, indicating that the strong recovery in new letters of credit opened to commercial banks to cover imports in December that imports likely to further increase in the next few months. Data report showed that non-oil exports slipped slightly on a monthly basis in November, but above its level a year ago by 10 per cent. The total value of non-oil exports during the first 11 months of the year 2013 is higher than the value of exports during the same period in 2012 by 5 per cent and imports rose slightly in November to 12.1 billion dollars, increasing the total value of imports during the period from the beginning of the year until November to 147 billion dollars, up by 4.4 percent from the level in the same period in 2012.
Oil prices analysis of the report showed that oil prices recorded a decline in early January, but strong demand, bad weather and the continuing stop supplies from Libya led to the reverse path in the second half of the month, caused US oil inventories were higher than expected in reducing the level of prices of West Texas, but modify the Outlook on global demand for oil this year will support higher prices.
The report touched on exchange rates to the exchange rate, noting that the decline of the euro against the dollar as a result of the low inflation in the euro zone in January, while the yen benefited from increased demand for assets that are considered safe havens. Emerging market currencies came under pressure during the past month, despite the start of central banks in some of these markets to increase interest rates. Data report indicated that the value of the euro slipped against the US dollar by 1.9 per cent as a result of the low inflation in the euro zone in January, putting an end to the decline of the Japanese yen against the dollar, because the increasing demand for the safe-haven assets as a result of concern over emerging economies.
