The price of oil yesterday was at the highest level in four years due to imminent US sanctions on Iran's crude exports, as well as the reluctance of OPEC and Russia to increase global supplies.
Brent crude futures extended gains, rising more than $ 1 a barrel to a session high of $ 82.22, which is the highest since November 2014, according to Reuters.
Oil is heading for the fifth straight quarterly gain, the longest winning streak since early 2017, when a six-week rally led oil to a record $ 147.50 a barrel.
US crude futures rose 30 cents to reach $ 72.38 a barrel near their highest levels since mid-July.
On Nov. 4, the United States is targeting the Iranian oil exports that are sanctioned and Washington is pressing governments and companies around the world to comply and reduce purchases from Tehran.
Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at the French bank BNP Paribas, spoke in the World Petroleum Forum, which was organized by Reuters yesterday, as he said, "Iran will lose large export volumes, and given the reluctance of OPEC + to increase production, the market is not equipped to fill the gap."
OPEC Secretary General Mohamed Barkindo said in Madrid yesterday that it is important for OPEC and its partners, including Russia, to cooperate to ensure that they do not "slip from one crisis to another."
The IEA expects strong growth in demand for oil by 1.4 million barrels per day this year and 1.5 million barrels per day in 2019. In its latest report, the IEA said that the market was experiencing a shortage of supplies.
Moreover, Commerzbank said that the rise in prices was a reaction to the crude oil market on the reservation of the producer group in OPEC and outside for the announcement of an increase in oil production during the tenth meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee in Algeria last Sunday.
A recent report by the bank said that the price of Brent crude for $ 80 a barrel was expected. It pointed out that "OPEC +" is still adhering to work on its previous goal that is to maintain 100 per cent commitment to productivity reductions.
It believed that this is enough to compensate the market for the lack of supply through gradual increases after the abolition of excessive voluntary reductions.
Furthermore, the report "Oil Price" stated that the rise in prices came sharply from yesterday, as the beginning of the week and the first day after Algeria meeting in which the OPEC + group decided not to do anything in the face of the tightening of the crude oil market.
The report highlighted an OPEC statement in which the OPEC ministerial follow-up committee and its independent producer allies said that despite growing uncertainty surrounding the fundamentals of the market, including the economy, and demand and supply.
The Committee expressed its satisfaction with the current oil market outlook with a comprehensive health balance between supply and demand.
The report pointed to the Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih, who said after the meeting that he did not know which oil refining company in the world was looking for oil and could not get it.
The report warned of the huge losses in supplies from Iran, not to mention the continuing declines in the production of Venezuela.
It pointed to divergent estimates of possible disruptions from Iran with the approaching date of sanctions in November.
It is likely to range between one million and two million barrels per day, while others reduce these expectations and see losses do not exceed 500 thousand barrels per day.
It pointed out that these losses in supplies, however different but certainly will lead to a significant tightening in the oil market, which is pushing prices to a high level within two months.
Moreover, Bill Farren Price, director of "Petroleum Policy Intelligence", said to the Economist that the rise in crude oil prices to a record high in four years predicts many subsequent gains that is prompting many financial institutions to expect a return close to $ 100 a barrel.
He pointed out that "OPEC" and its allies are already struggling to compensate for the sharp declines in the production of Iran and Venezuela, but so far the increases are limited and unable to spread confidence and reassure consumers about the stability of supplies, especially that the meeting of Algeria came out without resolving the file of increases productivity.
For his part, Andrew Morris, director of the management consulting company "Bueri", said that consumer nations, especially the United States, will intensify their pressure on producers in the coming period to restrain prices and candidates to continue the pace of rapid rises, which may threaten growth rates and supply levels, especially with prices rising to $ 82 a barrel or more.
He stressed to the Economist that many expectations are likely to lose the supply of about 2 million barrels per day by the date of sanctions on the fourth of November, which requires a stronger compensation effort by OPEC and its allies led by Russia.
It is indicating that some are convinced that the increases in producers may come limited because of the satisfaction with the high prices of a significant sector of producers, which promote investment in many projects, especially upstream projects.
US oil, despite its vast growth potential over the next two years, it has suffered a major blow to its growth potential, bottlenecks in pipelines, and weak labor forces.
He pointed out that despite the ambiguous position of the Algerian meeting, large increases in supplies would be achieved by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the months of October and November, without committing to specific quantities.
He pointed to the keenness of major producers for not to rush in the consumption of spare capacity as long as the market does not require it and meet the needs of consumers well.
US crude was up 2.2 per cent on Monday, its second consecutive daily gain, as it is hitting a two-month high of $ 72.72 a barrel.
Brent contracts were up 3.5 per cent, with their biggest daily gain since 30 November 2016.
Over the course of last week, global oil prices rose by an average of 2.5 percent, in the second weekly gain in a row, amid declining fears of oversupply in the market, especially as Iran's supply plummets and US commercial inventories fall for the fifth week in a row.
The United States continues to pressure governments and companies around the world to cut and stop buying crude from Iran, ahead of full economic sanctions on November 4, where Washington aims to reduce Iran's supply to zero and exit from the market altogether.
Some major countries, especially Japan and South Korea, immediately responded and stopped importing Iranian oil; However, India, Iran's second-largest oil buyer, has started cutting crude purchases by half this month.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a reminder to customers that Iran's crude oil exports had fallen 580,000 barrels per day in the past three months.
According to most major economic and financial institutions, after the full US sanctions are imposed, Iran's supply will shrink between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd from the market.
In order to compensate for the possible shortfall in the market and price cuts, President Donald Trump asked OPEC and Russia to increase production in the coming period, which is a demand that was ignored by producers during Algeria's meeting on Sunday.
OPEC crude basket rose $ 78.81 a barrel on Thursday, against $ 77.08 a barrel the previous day.
The daily report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" yesterday stated that the price of the basket, which includes the average prices of 15 tons of production by the member countries of the Organization achieved the first rise after a slight decrease earlier.
The basket also earned about two dollars compared to the same day last week, which recorded 76.19 dollars a barrel.
