15/12/2013
Liquidity drops to its lowest level in a year
The market fails to overcome the 8408 summit despite the high points of the index
The Saudi stock market failed to overcome Peak 8,408 points, in trading last week, the annual Summit of the President in the middle of the market index trades November last, despite the rise in the index in his trades downloads by 1.75 per cent. In trading last week, the TASI index touched the level of 4,445 points, at mid-trading, and then close the cursor at the end of the trading week at 8,430 points, amid declining value of trades to 4.5 billion riyals, compared to the average daily trading for this year, estimated at the end of November last year by 5.6 billion a day. Despite the high index TASI last week at the weekly by 1.75 per cent, compared with the previous week, the first week of December; however, reading and liquidity did not support this aspect.
TASI rises came with the support of leading market sectors, where the banking sector index rose 1.1 percent, the petrochemical sector by 2.5 percent and the telecommunications index by 2 percent, while the industrial index came on top of the higher sectors last week, by 4.2 percent, followed by the agriculture sector by 3.5 per cent, and transport index by 3.2 per cent. The value of trades, which last week 22.44 billion, remains low compared to trades this year, despite high trading the first week of December to 3.6 per cent, but the average daily trading last week, estimated at 4.5 billion a day, still less than the rate of trading this year, 5.6 billion a day.
Liquidity analysis also showed the value of trades, down to the safe sectors, decline of the speculative sector, banking sector, the value of trades this year of 9.5 per cent, the share of trades last week 13.6 per cent, as well as the petrochemical sector, the value of trades this year, 14.1 percent, the share of trades last week 22.8 per cent. And like them, a ' multi investment ' and ' industrial ', multi investment sector of trades last week, 4.25 per cent, compared with the estimated annual rate of 2.4 percent, and industrial investment 7.2 per cent of the value of trades last week, which is higher than the share of the private sector for this year, estimated at 5.9 per cent. Liquidity draws to come these sectors, at the expense of abating of speculation, as ' insurance ' which was 19.3 per cent of the value of trading this year, with its share of trades last week, 8.7 per cent, the lowest weekly level advocate share for this year.
Continued decline in shares of ' agriculture ' and ' retail ' sectors, where the agricultural sector received 5.6% of the value of trades, and the retailing sector 5.5%. Technically, the Saudi stock market TASI index above historical averages despite the forecasts, animated exponential functional decline in future trades and enhances this declining liquidity, failure index TASI on exceeds annual Summit at 8,408 points in trading last week. Read the technical notes to cash flow index MFI to these expectations, differences in the path with the market index TASI, and this difference is technical indicators reflecting the cursor downward track; the rise in trading last week, the TASI rose 1.75 percent, is positive, given the declining liquidity, and its orientation towards security sectors. Despite the expected index TASI retreats, but remains in a technical safety, close above historical averages, exponential moving average 50 days, at 8,205 points, average 200 days at 7755 points; and security-enhanced survival averages in positive order, close the average 50 days on average 200 days.
It is expected, in trading this week, and next; return index TASI point support 8215 points, which came down in the early trading month of December, and is expected to be a weak support for the index, which can ultimately defeat down to the level of the 8030 points, the average mobile market for 100 days. This comes as a form of art that are traded November and December, after TASI index in bypassing failed Summit 8,408 points in mid-trading November last, trading last week, the second week of the month of December.
But optimism over index TASI annual Summit, in trading this month, strengthened him, amid declining liquidity levels to the lowest level this year, and is expected to see the value of trades more regressions in this month. Provision to shift the cursor from uptrend to downtrend; it needs to break the TASI index point exponential moving average support for 200 days, at 7755 points, a point to be excluded for the time being.
