*Osama Suleiman from Vienna
The International Energy Agency has confirmed that Southeast Asian countries will lead a boom in demand for conventional energy over the next few years by given that it will face investment requirements of about $ 2.7 trillion to meet the growing needs of energy supplies that is including transport and improved efficiency levels.
A recent report by the International Agency pointed out that as Southeast Asia continues to grow and urbanize very quickly, as it is expected to see tremendous growth in energy demand over the next 20 years.
It added that the demographic changes in Asia will lead to the addition of between 100 and 150 million new consumers of the middle class in the region.
It pointed out that Vietnam will match China as an urban state by 50 percent by 2030, in addition to growth in other countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia, which are large in population.
The report predicted that energy demand in Southeast Asia would increase by two-thirds by 2040.
It noted that this will require massive investments and strong infrastructure in the power generation and transmission sectors.
In the same context, the Oil Price report said that the growing demand for energy raises an important question about what the South East Asia region will face: would the situation be more difficult in terms of dependence on coal and carbon resources, or will it move on to more sustainable resources such as renewable energy and natural gas?
According to the report, by 2030 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to become the fourth largest energy consumer in the world.
It pointed out that Southeast Asia will add more energy in the next 20 years, equivalent to the current capacity of a full country in the size of Japan.
The report said that ASEAN Countries, which is consisting of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, are the center of a number of poor and developing countries that will be under special pressure due to increased demand for energy over the next two decades.
It noted that Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam were estimated to grow by 6-10 per cent annually, while Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are likely to experience remarkable growth each year, which means great economic pressure that will fall on these developing countries.
Oil analysts also expected prices to continue rising this week after gains at the end of last week due to the escalating political crisis in Venezuela, in addition to the impact of production cuts led by the OPEC +.
Analysts pointed out that continued concern over global growth and high inventory level inhibited price recovery, as well as oversupply of markets and demand data coming from China.
In this context, Goran Geras, assistant director of ZEF Bank in Croatia, said to the Economist that Crude oil prices have gained around 25 per cent since the end of last year.
It is poised for further gains this week and in subsequent weeks, especially as geopolitical factors are driven in this direction by the outbreak of conflict in Venezuela.
Geras pointed to a slowdown in US drilling activities, which could boost the chances of price growth in the light of the possibility of shrinking US supplies, even temporarily.
He pointed out that the US exploration may be at its lowest level in three years.
For his part, Reinhold Gutierre, Director of Oil and Gas at Siemens, explained to the Economist that the market faces wide and opposing pressures, but the emergence of a difficult political crisis in Venezuela increases the chances of rising prices and this trend is supported by the influential production cuts implemented by the OPEC + producer alliance.
Gutierre added that there are fears of an economic slowdown persist, especially as trade disputes between China and the United States continue, which may limit the levels of energy demand.
He pointed out that the market is experiencing a state of uncertainty and the developments and changes are successive, which is making it difficult to determine the future market situation even in the short term.
Furthermore, Winnie Akilo, analyst at Africa Engineering, said to the Economist that the sanctions on Venezuela will certainly support the chances of rising prices, but "we cannot ignore the successive mutations in the levels of US production."
She noted that the United States will become a net exporter of crude oil and gas this year, which was previously expected after three or four years.
Akilo pointed to the continued expansion in the level of US supplies of oil and gas in exchange for fears of slowing demand due to expectations of shrinking economic growth.
Oil prices rose at the end of last week due to the political unrest in Venezuela, which threatens to reduce the supply of crude, but worries about growing US fuel stocks and the global economic troubles have been tempered by sentiment.
The United States has indicated that it may impose sanctions on Venezuelan exports after the recognition of opposition leader Juan Guido as interim president, which was prompting President Nicolas Maduro to sever ties with Washington.
But the US-China trade dispute and pessimism about global economic growth have curbed prices.
According to "Reuters", Brent crude futures closed at $ 61.64 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.9 percent.
Brent has lost 1.7 percent since the start of Monday's trading, heading for the first weekly loss in four weeks.
The settlement price for US crude oil futures was set at $ 53.69 a barrel, up 56 cents or 1.05 percent.
Crude fell about 0.2 per cent throughout the week.
It is also hitting its first weekly drop in four weeks.
RBC expects Europe to increase any US sanctions, the size of expected production decline in Venezuela to nearly two lesbians.
It added, "Venezuelan production will fall by another 300 to 500 thousand barrels per day this year, but such punitive measures may increase that shortage by several hundred thousand barrels."
Some analysts rule out the possibility of immediate sanctions.
Jim Ritterbusch, the president of Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note, "We believe that the possibility of imposing sanctions on Venezuelan imports is a weak prospect and a recent measure is likely not to happen weeks, even months, if it happens. Developments in Venezuela may seem to delay the test we expect to support at $ 50."
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that his country will continue to sell oil to the United States, despite Washington's signals last week of the possibility of sanctions on Venezuelan exports and its recognition of the leader of the Venezuelan opposition Juan Guaido as a leader of State."
Maduro added that "the decision to sever relations with the United States directed against US President Donald Trump will not affect the exports of his country."
On the other hand, the number of active oil rigs in the United States recorded the biggest weekly drop since February 2016, while this year America is expected to strengthen its leadership role as the world's largest producer of crude.
Baker Hughes Energy Services in its closely monitored report stated, "oil drilling companies stopped the operation of 21 excavators last week, which is bringing the total number of rigs to 852, the lowest level since May 2018."
However, the number of active oil rigs in America, a preliminary indicator of future production, is still higher than a year ago when 747 diggers after energy companies increased spending in 2018 to take advantage of higher prices that year.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude production in the United States rose last week to a peak of 11.9 million barrels per day, as it is expected to record a new record above 12 million bpd this year and jump to about 13 million barrels per day next year.
Thanks to increases in oil production, the United States has become the world's largest producer of crude with production reaching about 11 million bpd in 2018, which broke the country's record level in 1970.
