12/11/2017
Saudi Arabia is making strong efforts to support rising prices and
market, the report said, adding that OPEC
production cuts are likely to be extended in cooperation with
independent producers.
"Despite the political tension and geopolitical factors in the Middle
East, the potential for a disruption in oil supplies is still very low,"
the report said, pointing out that markets are looking for more actions
by producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
According
to the report, Saudi Arabia is always adopting new steps and perhaps a
surprise to support the market and influence the efforts of joint
cooperation and is based on the public interest of producers and
consumers and also to support the balance of the market, pointing that Riyadh is reducing its oil exports from November to December ) By 120 thousand barrels per day.
The
report said that the world's top oil traders are fully convinced of the
current success of OPEC's efforts to restrict production and treat the
supply gap finally influential, noting that
Saudi Arabia maintains a good and appropriate level of oil stocks and
the Kingdom has seen a decline in oil stocks by 70 million barrels at the beginning of 2016, but stocks rose and
returned to the level of health and appropriate in the current year.
The factors driving prices for growth remain strong, particularly
geopolitical risks that are still lingering in the Middle East as well
as economic factors, led by strong expectations that OPEC will extend
the cut to the end of 2018.
The
report said that oil prices showed some weakness in the middle of last
week against the background of data that reported that US oil production
has achieved a jump in productivity, pointing out that interest rates
rose last Thursday, making the West Texas Intermediate and Brent on
track to record the fifth week gains, noting that oil prices closed on the longest series of weekly gains in more than a year.
The
report pointed that OPEC expected in its annual report a
significant growth in the supply of oil shale oil in the United States,
pointing to estimates that the organization of the United States oil
shale will reach 1.5 million barrels per day this year and then rise to
5.7 million barrels per day by 2021 and then drops to 4.8 million barrels per day after 2021.
The
report noted that "OPEC" always emphasizes the importance of the role
of rock oil in the international energy system, and aims to reach a
market stable and balanced will not resort to the extraction of US oil
shale oil from the market by dumping markets by producing, but focuses
on the cooperation of all producers to adjust the relationship between
supply and demand .
The
report pointed out that the exclusion of "OPEC" oil demand in the
near future, pointing to the expectations of the Organization "OPEC"
that demand for oil will rise by more than 15 million barrels per day
until 2040, excluding the validity of some forecasts and predictions of demand for Crude oil over the next decade or two.
In a related context, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) predicted that 50 per cent of the projected growth in
refining capacity in the world over the next two decades will occur in
the Asia-Pacific region, which is expected to add 9.5 million barrels
per day by 2040.
The latest report of the Organization of the World's most likely to
increase the demand for OPEC oil to 41.4 million barrels per day by
2040, pointing out that the share of OPEC fluids in the total global
fluid supply will rise to 46 per cent by 2040 compared to 40 per cent in
2016.
"Global
crude oil trade is expected to grow by about 6.5 million bpd between
2016 and 2040, supported mostly by Asia and the Pacific and Middle East
exports," the report said, noting that the global investment required in
the oil sector up to 2040 is estimated at 10.5 Trillion dollars.
The report forecast total primary energy demand to rise by 35 percent
in the period to 2040, adding that "oil is expected to remain fuel,
which represents the largest share of the energy mix throughout the
forecast period until 2040."
The outlook for growth in long term demand for crude has been adjusted
to an increase of 1.7 million bpd compared to 2016. Total demand is
likely to reach more than 111 million bpd by 2040, the report said.
Developing
countries will continue to drive demand growth, increasing by 24
million barrels per day to 67 million bpd by 2040. The growth in
long-term demand will come mainly from the road transport sector by 5.4
million barrels per day, petrochemicals 3.9 Million barrels per day and the aviation sector 2.9 million barrels per day.
The report pointed out that the growth in demand for oil is mainly due
to the land transport sector where there is a rapid increase in the
fleet of vehicles in developing countries in exchange for a continuous
decline in the dependence on the use of oil for each vehicle in the
countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
It is expected that the nature of fuel in the fleet of cars will
change during the forecast period, noting that in
the passenger car sector is estimated that electric cars will represent
12 percent of the fleet of cars by 2040.
OPEC's
report expects OPEC oil supply to rise from 57 million barrels per day in 2016 to 62 million bpd in 2022, but in contrast, it is expected
that the production of oil liquids from OPEC countries, OPEC "long-term decline to 60.4 million barrels per day by 2040.
