22/09/2013
This Year growth in the range of 2.5%
World trade organization expects a gradual recovery in the global economy
WTO economists said that the growth of world trade in 2013 and 2014 is slower than previous forecasts, but the growth is coming. The economists expect growth in the current year to 2.5 percent, down from the previous forecast to 3.3 percent in April and 2.8 percent next year, down from 3.1 per cent, but they contend that improved trade now gradually returning to its rightful place.
The Director-General, Roberto Azevedo mentioned that the expectation sends a message to the WTO that the slow growth in trade over the past two years reinforces the need to make progress in the multilateral negotiations. The organization said in the report the first to be signed by the new Director General, Azevedo, the import demand in developing economies saw recovery but at a slower rate than expected, what hindered the growth of exports from developed and developing countries alike, in the first half of 2013, also decline in forecast growth rates. The Director-General, wrote in the introduction to the report: Although the trade slowdown stemmed largely from the shocks experienced in small economies, there are strong indications that protectionism has also contributed to part of the slowdown, where new forms of protectionism, it is difficult to detect them, fortunately, there is nothing we can do about this, the ongoing negotiations in Geneva could address these problems, and facilitate greater trade and stimulate economic growth opportunities.
Azeve
do said, that some of the short-term Outlook is improving based on the encouraging statements coming from Europe, the United States, Japan and China, and that reports on the activities of the private sector from purchasing managers and is an economic term that gives an indication of the activities to be undertaken by companies in the future, and freight rates, auto production and other indicators, underlines that the economic downturn has reached the bottom, there are possibilities of recovery have largely eased since last year, the European sovereign debt crisis, the unemployment rate fell to 7.3 percent from a high of 10 percent after the crisis, accelerated GDP growth in Japan since the adoption of the new fiscal and monetary policies. The report suggests that although the large developing economies slowed down significantly in recent months, the latest figures from China for the country's industrial production suggest that China may restore some vitality; on the other hand, the economy of India is still in the midst of a sharp contraction.
However, given that the EU consumes about a third of the world's traded goods including shipments between Member countries of the European Union, the unemployment rate in the EU is not likely to remain at near record levels and, therefore, can be expected trade growth rate of below average or less than average 20 years of 5.4 percent in the next three quarters, from now to mid-2014. The volume of world merchandise trade rose by 1.2 per cent in the first half of 2013, compared to the same period in 2012, as earlier forecasts of the Organization on the growth rate of 2.5 percent, it would have required a world trade growth by 3.8 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2013, which could have been achieved by the organization.
The report adds that there is no doubt that some of the demand that will strengthen this growth will come from higher imports in advanced economies, but these imports decreased by 1.6 per cent in the first six months of the year 2013, and therefore will require an increase of 1.4 percent in the second half, the question of whether this will happen, it depends largely on the pace of recovery in the European Union, according to specialists, and of the few bright spots in the business arena since the European sovereign debt crisis erupted mid-2012, a flexibility in developing economies, imports were higher than exports from other countries, arrived to 5.8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2013, but imports are expected to decrease to around 5.5 percent in the second half of the year.
Indeed commercial reality says that imports from developing countries rose nearly 12 percent in the past two years while those of developed economies were stable or declined, indicating that developing economies have partially reduced the impact of the decline in imports by developed countries on the growth of the world economy. Who expects to grow the volume of world merchandise trade by 2.5 per cent in 2013, export expects to increase by 1.5 per cent to the economies of developed countries, a rise of 3.6 percent for the economies of developing countries, and in the import side, expect a stagnation in growth within 0.1 per cent for developed countries and increase of 5.8 percent for the economies of developing countries.
For next year, the Organization anticipates that global trade by 4.5 per cent, with exports of developed economies by 2.8 per cent, developing countries jump by 6.3 per cent, and imports are expected to grow the economies of developed countries by 3.2 per cent in 2014 while waiting to expand developing countries ' economies by 6.2 per cent. Weakness can be attributed to imports from developing economies in 2012 and 2013 to continuing stagnation in the euro zone, which began in the last quarter of 2011, has been extended until the first quarter of this year. The growth of the GDP of the European Union including countries that don't use the euro higher degree fall very slightly, and numerically with a growth rate of $ 50.01 per cent, recording just a single quarter rise in production, according to the quarterly national statistics, pushing deflation incomes, and reduce demand for all goods, including imports, in the largest single market in the world.
EU Continued exports to the rest of the world in growth in recent quarters, by 5.6 per cent in the first half of the year, and 30 per cent since the first quarter of 2010. However, both extra-EU imports and trade between EU countries has fallen steadily since mid-2011, with a drop of around 2 percent on an annual basis in the first half of 2013. The European Union accounts for only 33 per cent of world imports and 58 per cent of the imports of advanced economies, economic shocks will be reflected to the developed world.
