07/12/2014
Specialists are demanding harmony between production policies "OPEC" and "independents" to set the tempo Price
Oil markets .. variation in the weekly performance reflects the state of anxiety
Oilprices havevariedduringthe week's trading, reflectingthe state of tensionin the crudemarketbecause ofthe wave ofthe sharp declinethat beganin June(last June)and led to theloss ofoil pricesfor40 per centof its value.
And"OPEC"beganbaskettradingthis monthon a relativehigh,which reportedUS $68.13a barrelfrom $66.44a barrel on theprevious day, but thefollowing dayssaw theresumption ofthe downturnand losseswherebasketballrecordedlast Thursday,according to the latestpublisheddata for theorganization, "OPEC"66.27dollars a barrel.
He attributed thespecialistsNaftyonreasons forthis discrepancytoan uncertainvision ofdealerson the determination ofa pricefloorforcrude,the absence ofharmonyproductionpoliciesamong producersin theorganization, "OPEC"and beyond, in addition tothe impact of risingbefore themarketdata,and anticipationof productiondevelopmentswith respect to Libyaand Iraq.
He saidthe "economic"a number of specialiststhat pricesadjustin the oil marketis not locatedon theAtaqOrganization of Petroleum ExportingCountries "OPEC",adding that thepolitical situationand internationalconflictshave a significantrolein thedecline inthe price of oil,but there are otherfactorsinfluentialin the scenecannot beneglectedthemandweak demanddue to lowergrowth rates andstagnation of the worldeconomy,especially in themajor consumingindustrialized countries, most notablyChina and Japan.
Andcharacterizedtradingon the"OPEC"crudebasketpast week,by contrast,saidthe "economic"Ameral-Bayati,an Iraqi analyst, said thatadjust theoilmarket has becomeabsolutely necessaryat this stage,eventhe sharpdeclinesin thepricesdo not continue,pointingto theimportance of activating thecommitmentquotaswithin thesystem, "OPEC"In additionto the need forcooperationfromproducersoutside the"OPEC"especiallyRussia, aprominentproducerofcrude.
Al-Bayatiaddedthat the currentscene isdisturbingonmarket conditionswhere we findIraq, for example,tendstoincrease productionalsomiss thecooperation between producersfrom outside the"OPEC"At theforefront ofRussia, which ledto theworseningsituation ofoversupply, rather thandecrease.
Al-Bayatisaid thatthe problemshared bycountrieswithin the"OPEC"along withmajor producersoutside the"OPEC",that ifthe"OPEC"forthe assumptioncut productionwhileIraqhasraised itwithnon-Member Statesin the"OPEC"will find ourselveswithout a solutiondid notachieve something,andmarket conditionswill remainas it isandmay facenew crisesin the future.
Bayati saidthere are reportsconfirmingthatIraqisthe development ofa widesectorof oilwith the help ofWestern oil companiesanddemandinghis governmentexclusionofany restrictionsimposed by the"OPEC"tosupplythe grounds thatBaghdadfaceda severeeconomic crisesover the past yearsand theneedto recovertheexcess ofher ordealandachieve somethingin the field ofdevelopmentafterthatravagedwarsand economic sanctionsovermany years.
He added that themarketsare looking forward toincreaseIraq's oilflows, indicatingthe presence of Iraqidevelopment planraisesexport ofIraqicrudeto3.2 millionbarrels a daynext yearand that thisseemsfeasiblein themarkets, butit addsa newburdenon the oil marketinlight of the growingsupply and lessPrice.
He pointed out thatthe same thingis saidtoLibya, whichis growingrecoveryproductiveoutplans,afterfinallyincreasedoilfountainfieldproduction in theeast of the countryto reachits production to20thousand barrels per day,in addition to thework of a numberof fieldsnaturally, which confirmsthat the problem ofthe growingsupplyexacerbated by theneedthese two countriesto thedevelopmentin addition to thelack of cooperation fromcountries outside the"OPEC".
According tothe statisticsand graphsof theorganization, "OPEC"that thepricecurveinsteady declinesince the beginning ofOctober(last October),whereprices werearound $98per barrelto reachnearly$ 66 a barrelearlier this monthandduringthe last two months, butgainsdid not occurlimited and temporaryno more thantwo or three timeseach monthandwasa slightrise inall thesetimes.
In a related context,droppedthe price ofpetroleum exportstoVenezuelacrude oiland refined products, includingUS $6.16baskettoend theweekat $61.92a barrel, pressuredincludingan oversupplyin the market.
Are tradingbasketVenezuela,a member of theorganization, "OPEC"Statedeductallother standardmaterialsbecause oftheir contenttopofheavy oil.
Fellfuturescrude oilthe day before yesterdayinthe wake of thedecision announced bySaudi Arabiathat itwould cutthe price of oilexported bytheUnited States and Asia, in theNew York Mercantile Exchange, "NYMEX"US crudeoil futuresfellJanuarydelivery (January)at a rate of0.76percentto trade at66.31dollars a barrel.
TheUS Energy Information Administrationinits weekly reportthatUScrude oil inventoriesrose by2.6 millionbarrels,compared withexpectations ofa decline of0.8 millionbarrels.
The contractfelllast Thursdayat a rate of0.85percent, or $0.57, to closetradingat $66.81a barrel.
The price of oilhas beenunder pressureafter Saudi ArabiaCompany"Aramco"declared lowerthe officialselling pricesforcrudeoilas ofJanuary(January)to their lowest levelsin14 years, at leastfor buyersin the United Statesand Asia.
The movesuggests thatSaudi Arabiafocusedefforts to obtainmarket share inthe USwithoil, whichis soldat cheaper prices,especially after the"OPEC"s decision lastweekto maintainproductionquotas unchanged,theprice of oilfieldgavemore and moreof thelow.
The price of oilhas fallenclearlyin recent monthsamid concerns aboutexcess supplyin the global market, inlast placeinthe ICE Futures Exchange,roseoil, Brentfuturesfor delivery inJanuary(Jan)by 0.73per cent, orthe equivalent of54 centsto trade at69.11dollars a barrel,what makesthe difference betweenUS crudecontracts,Brentat $2.80a barrel.
In a related context, according to theNew York Mercantile Exchangehaslostfuturescontracts for crudeoiltradeinJanuary(January)toUS $66.39a barrel,a decline of0.64per cent.
Andearlier traded at alowof $66.09a barrel onthe session, noting thatcrude oilmay findsupport atUS $63.72and resistance at69.54dollars.On theNymex,Brentoilpricefor the month ofJanuary(Jan)by 0.65per centtotrade atUS $69.19a barrel,whilethe pointsdifference"spread" between theBrentand crudecontractsstandingat $2.8per barrel.
On the other hand,ValentinBominovRussiananalystpointedto "economic",that the Russianeconomy, whichdepends onoil and gasmainlyconfirmed itwill facea slowdownsignificantly inthe next year, pointingto the importance ofthe agreement, which was announcedyesterdaybetween Russia andSlovakia,updurationto 15yearsonRussianoil suppliestoSlovakiaandtransit of Russianoil through theSlovakterritoryto European countries.He saidRussiananalyst,that the agreementis a boost forthe oil sectorinRussia,also representsan important economicasset tothe EU countriesconsumingoil,whichcurrentlybenefit from thedecline in prices,particularly with regard tofuel andproduction inputs.Bominovsaidthat under theConvention, whichentered into forceearly next year,willSlovakiaboughtsix milliontons of oilannuallyvia theoilpipeline"Druzhba"transfer, in addition topumpingthe same amount ofoil through theSlovakterritorytoWestern Europe.
Furthermore,Magdidecimaleconomic analyst, said thepolitical situationand internationalconflictsdo notdoubtthat they havea major rolein thedecline inthe price of oil, but wemust realize thatthere are other factorsinfluentialin the scenecannot be neglected, including theweak demanddue todeclining growth ratesand sluggishglobal economy,especially in themajor consumingindustrialized countries, most notablyChina and Japan.
Hedecimal,that increasedIraqi productionandthe Libyanand the possibility ofreaching an agreementbetweenIran and the Westwouldpumpmore oilin the market, thus increasingsupplyandfalling prices,pointing out that thecountries thatadopta greater proportionof its oilexportsintheir budgetsfromnowfastmoving towardsdiversifyingeconomiesandthe expansion of thepromisingindustries such aspetrochemicals.
Decimalexplainedthat although thecrisisoccurredon theGulfoil stateshave less impactbecause ofthe fullness of theirhugefinancialreserves,butit will notsubstitute foraccelerating thedevelopment and investmentprograms in the areasanddiversesources ofenergy.
